Changes in climate have the potential to create significant disruption and uncertainty in the oil and gas sector.

These include:

• cost impacts such as reduced plant efficiency from temperature rise and environmental impacts from the overflow of drainage systems from increased precipitation.
• social impacts related to increased water stress and physical risks from, for example, increased flood levels, sea level rise and changing storms patterns. Climate change can impact the communities and environments in which the industry operates. Stakeholder expectations around climate change (including shareholders and governments) are also changing and are likely to continue to change.

Understanding both physical risks and vulnerabilities of the oil and gas sector will help IOGP Members develop and implement adaptation strategies to manage the physical impacts of climate change.

Raise awareness and disseminate knowledge related to risks, methodologies and approaches that help adapt to climate change

Programme

Improve confidence in the use of climate data by identifying its limitations and develop improved methodologies that reduce and quantify uncertainty

Understand the potential risk picture that climate changes pose for all aspects of the industry

Overview and introduction

Welcome and overview presentations from the host and event sponsors.

Emissions scenarios

The session focussed on higher level questions on how knowledge has evolved over the past decade with regard to emission pathways and global circulation.

Air and seawater temperatures

Air and seawater temperatures affect several oil and gas activities including power generation and LNG liquefaction. Generally, higher temperature negatively impacts efficiency, meaning the production of oil and gas becomes more energy intensive. Additionally, increased heat stress on outside workers results in potentially unsafe conditions, reduced working hours and reduced productivity. Ocean circulation is also of interest in this session, particularly in terms of identifying potential changes in larger scale circulations.

Sea level rise and ice coverage

Rising global sea level has several potential consequences to upstream and downstream oil and gas activities. Fixed platforms, coastal refineries and LNG facilities become more exposed to the effects of storm surge and wave loading. In Arctic regions, terrestrial ice coverage and permafrost supports key oil and gas infrastructure such as strategic pipelines and service roads. Changes in both sea level and ice coverage could impact our ability to operate safely and could require mitigation measures.

Tropical storms

Tropical storms provide the governing design conditions to both fixed and floating platforms in most tropical regions. Therefore, projected changes in storm characteristics (primarily track and intensity) will potentially have significant repercussions to platform integrity and our ability to operate safely. Platforms in most of these regions are evacuated prior to large storm events, however, if storm frequency increases, evacuations will be more common leading to greater production losses and increased risk to offshore workers (evacuations are not risk-free).

Extra-tropical storms

In extra-tropical regions we have historically designed facilities to survive abnormal (10,000-year return period) conditions and do not generally evacuate in storm conditions. However, this position is continuously revisited when new knowledge/data emerges. We are thus keen to understand what the latest information from climate models is telling us.

Rainfall and flooding

Recent high-profile flooding events in the US (for example hurricane Harvey in 2017) have had significant impacts on refining availability and on the infrastructure and supply chain that support a number of Downstream activities. Onshore gas production facilities in arid regions have experienced severe flash-floods resulting in lengthy periods of downtime. Increasing snowfall may increase loading on structures and impact daily operations. These changes may or may not reflect a changing climate, however, we require tools that allow us to better assess the basis of design using the best available knowledge and datasets.

Drought, Fire and Water availability

A lack of water may be as damaging as flooding. There is potential for shifting precipitation patterns and air temperatures to impact the runoff volumes in rivers, particularly the seasonal patterns, and to significantly change the volume of water recharging aquifers. This could affect the sustainability in water supplies in many regions. The projected variations in precipitation and temperature patterns also have the potential to impact the frequency and severity of droughts. Importantly, drought conditions can lead to increased risk of wildfire with adverse effects on infrastructure and supply chain. Recent droughts, such as these in South East Brazil, California and South Africa, have highlighted the severity of the issues.

Further information

For further information please contact Birgitta Visser at bv@iogp.org